Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Negotiation and Warfare
The sequence of conflicting incidents captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: optimistic declarations are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, conflict continues to be the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from across the border, a ability provided through up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches targeted at a Russian ballistic missile. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably delivered by Western nations. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into grim resignation: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and another blackout.
Continuous Dangers
Soon after, a heavy machine gun fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – almost certainly imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: multiple fatalities, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to fill in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, debate and serious worry – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership unfolds according to the consistent cycle: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This trend will, undoubtedly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration works based on a assumption familiar among international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from assuming that the current condition will not shift further in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their reason to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still hold out, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a complete military breakdown until circumstances change in its advantage.
Current Realities
Objectively, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: political desires to mediate resolution and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a just a single week to kill the 28 points of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new proposals based on old ideas are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
