Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried referendum that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That is the message from two prominent writers from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to make it possible is mostly absent. Much has occurred in academia but very few politicians or advocates seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal figures, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on both sides."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where citizens claim they favour unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, said the analyst. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
